Gaza’s New Peace Plan: A Test of Will for Israel and the US

The latest peace plan for Gaza has been met with skepticism by Israel, but it also presents a unique opportunity for the United States to exert its influence on the conflict. The deal, announced last week, is more detailed and substantive than previous arrangements.

One key difference between this new plan and past efforts is Hamas’ willingness to disarm. After years of promoting armed resistance against Israel, the group has agreed to hand over its weapons to a committee of independent technocrats. This concession marks a significant shift in Hamas’ stance on violence, but experts caution that it may also be motivated by external pressure from countries like Egypt and Qatar.

Muhammad Shehada, a visiting fellow with the European Council of Foreign Affairs, notes that “they would not have made such a major, historic concession unless their backs were totally against the wall.” This suggests that Hamas is aware of its own vulnerability and has calculated that disarmament is necessary to prevent further Israeli military action.

The real sticking point in any peace plan for Gaza is the sequencing of events. Israel demands that Hamas disarm before withdrawing its troops from Gaza, while Hamas insists on simultaneous withdrawal. The new 15-point plan attempts to address this issue by outlining a phased approach, but it remains unclear whether this will be enough to persuade Israel to accept the deal.

The Israeli government’s response has been predictably negative, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing opposition from within his own party and from far-right ministers like Itamar Ben-Gvir. With a critical election looming in less than 90 days, Netanyahu cannot appear flexible on Hamas, explains Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The US role in this conflict has been complex and often contradictory. On one hand, President Trump’s willingness to engage with Hamas is unprecedented, and his efforts to push Israel towards acceptance of the new plan may be seen as a positive development. However, the Israeli government’s suspicion of US intentions is long-standing, and Netanyahu’s own history of defying US pressure raises questions about whether he will ultimately cooperate.

The real test of wills in this conflict lies ahead: Will the US exert sufficient pressure on Israel to accept the new peace plan, or will Netanyahu’s domestic political calculations take precedence? The answer may depend on how far Trump is willing to go to push his “historic breakthrough.”